국내 개별 관광산업의 주가수익에 대한 방한 중국인 관광객 수요 예측력에 관한 연구

초록

This study is designed to examine the predicitivity of Chinese inbound tourism demand on the performance(stock return) of each type of tourism industry. The data for this study were monthly time series data (the number of Chinese inbound arrivals and stock return of each tourism industry) from Jan, 2008 to Dec, 2016. Both conditional mean and quantile predictive regression models were utilized with collected data. The empirical result of this study shows that the predicitivity of Chinese inbound tourism demand on the performance of tourism industry would be differed by both data characteristic and the level of tourism industry’s performance. In conclusion, the results of this study would provide useful information to establish an appropriately and effectively customized strategies for each type of tourism industry, because the future performance could be estimated by using current Chinese tourism demand as predictive variable.

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