불확실성과 정책오차의 이중성(duality of policy errors) : 신용카드사 규제정책을 중심으로

초록

Policy predictive systems using on causal knowledge cannot be completely free from uncertainty. A Policy under uncertainty accompanies errors. The magnitude of policy errors can be delineated as the sum of false positives and false negatives. The duality of errors recognized as policy failure becomes an important issue in many policy areas such as health care, welfare, education, regulation, and budget where policy makers are required to make dichotomous decisions. The Taylor-Russell framework explains unavoidable trade-offs between false positives and false negatives and therefore provides an important conceptual framework for understanding the duality of policy errors. It makes explicit the necessary interrelationships between the two errors by integrating three factors including accuracy of policy predictive system, the criterion of policy success, and decision threshold for policy intervention. This study attempts to show policy errors based on the Taylor-Russell framework. It indicates that an attempt to reduce one type of error inevitably leads to an increase in the other. It points out that the only way to reduce both errors simultaneously is to reduce the uncertainty, thus improving the accuracy of policy predictive system.

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