내부통제제도가 재무분석가의 이익예측에 미치는 영향: 중국기업의 COVID－19 위기 전후를 중심으로

초록

[Purpose]This study aimed to empirically analyze the relationship between the internal control system and the earning forecasting characteristics of financial analysts using Chinese companies. Specifically, the relationship between the internal control system and the earning forecasting characteristics of financial analysts was examined. Furthermore, we analyzed the differences in the relationship between them before and after the COVID－19 crisis. [Methodology]The sample of this study is Chinese A－share listed companies from 2015 to 2020. Using the DIB(Developement, Innovation, Brand, DIB) internal control index provided by the DIB database, companies with high and low internal control quality were classified and verified whether there is a difference in the earning forecasting accuracy and earning forecasting bias of financial analysts by the internal control quality. And we tested before and after the COVID－19 crisis, companies with high internal control quality and companies with low internal control quality were verified whether there were differences in the earning forecasting accuracy and earning forecasting bias between groups. [Findings]As a result of supporting Hypothesis 1, the higher the quality of internal control, the higher the accuracy of the financial analyst’s earnings forecasting, and the less optimistic the earnings forecasting bias. In addition, as a result of testing Hypothesis 2, we found that there was a difference in the accuracy and bias of financial analysts’ earning forecasting before and after the COVID－19 crisis. In other words, after the COVID－19 crisis, the internal control system can provide more meaningful information, and the higher the internal control quality, the higher the accuracy of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts and the less optimistic relatively. [Implications]When the risk of the external environment of a company increases, internal control quality can provide more meaningful information to external information users and shows that the internal control system is effective.

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