Validation of the Prognosis for Prolonged Ventilation (ProVent) score in patients receiving 14 days of mechanical ventilation

초록

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Prognosis for Prolonged Ventilation (ProVent) 14 score in patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV). Materials and methods: Data were obtained from 366 patients receiving at least 14 days of MV between January 2011 and December 2015 at a university-affiliated tertiary care hospital in Korea. ProVent 14 scores were assessed using the six standard variables. Model discrimination was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Kaplan-Meier estimates were stratified according to the ProVent 14 score to predict 1-year survival. Results: The median age of the study group was 62 years (range, 50-72 years); 65% were male, and medical patients comprised 66% of the group. Overall mortality at 1 year was 43%. For ProVent 14 scores ranging from 0 to >= 4, 1-year mortality rates were 7%, 22%, 41%, 52%, and 75%, respectively (log-rank test, P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ProVent 14 score predicting 1-year mortality was 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.78). Conclusions: The ProVent 14 score accurately identified patients receiving PMV with a high 1-year mortality risk. Further validation in a larger sample is required. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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