시변계수모형을 적용한 한국의 실업률과 산출량과의 관계에 대한 연구: 남성과 여성에 대한 분석을 중심으로

초록

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between male and female unemployment rates and real GDP in the period 1980-2014 in Korea. This is known as the Okun's rule of thumb, and there are many previous studies confirming whether these relationships are maintained in a stable negative relationship. We suggest a model in which the relationships change with time. Unlike previous studies, we also analyzed the unemployment rates of men and women. Korea suffered a foreign-exchange crisis in 1997-1998 and it would have affected the relationship between unemployment rate and productivity. In 1997-1998, the estimate of the Okun’s coefficient has increased. In particular, the estimate of the Okun’s coefficient for female unemployment rate is greater than the estimate of the Okun’s coefficient for male unemployment rate. This can be interpreted as having a negative effect on the female unemployment rate than that of the male when the economy is in recession.

키워드