Realistic threats escalating societal conflict: electoral distrust, strong leader support, and divided justice in South Korea’s 2024–2025 political crisis

초록

Across contemporary democracies, intensifying political polarization, electoral distrust, and rising support for strong leaders have raised concerns about democratic stability. Drawing on Intergroup Threat Theory and Justice Theory, this study examines how perceived outgroup threats relate to justice perceptions during the 2024–2025 political crisis in South Korea. Survey data from the South Korean general public collected immediately after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol show that perceptions of China as a realistic—but not symbolic—threat were associated with belief in electoral fraud, stronger support for President Yoon, and polarized justice evaluations of martial law and impeachment. Supporters viewed martial law as justified and impeachment as unjust, whereas opponents showed the opposite pattern, even after controlling for established ideological attitudes. The findings suggest that realistic threat perceptions are associated with political interpretations that prioritize ingroup security over justice concerns, as well as stronger support for strong leaders and exceptional political measures. These results show that perceived realistic threats are associated with polarized justice evaluations, as supporters and opponents interpret the same political actions in opposing ways, extending evidence on polarization beyond Western democracies to South Korea.

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