ScholarWorks@중앙대학교

초록

This study investigated the dynamic spillover effects of vacancy rates in the Seoul metropolitan prime office markets, which underwent structural changes following the emergence of the Pangyo–Bundang prime office market (PBBD) that reshaped the market demand that had long been centered on Seoul. The study’s empirical analysis employed Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition based on a vector error correction model. The main findings were as follows. First, the Granger causality analysis revealed that the vacancy rate spillover paths among prime office markets generally exhibited asymmetric and unidirectional relationships. Second, the impacts of the Yeouido prime office market (YBD) and Gangnam prime office market (GBD) on the central business district (CBD) showed long-term offsetting effects; the impacts of the CBD and GBD on YBD were negative, whereas those of the CBD and YBD on GBD were positive, indicating differentiated dynamic vacancy effects across submarkets. Third, the PBBD and Seoul’s prime office submarkets (CBD, YBD, and GBD) demonstrated increasingly strengthened structural linkages through major industries. Fourth, the Seoul prime office submarkets exhibited high independent volatility, with vacancies largely explained by their own shocks. Fifth, the PBBD interacted with the GBD (owing to geographic proximity) and the YBD (because of similarities in core industry composition) to form a networked vacancy pattern. Based on these results, the study suggests policy implications such as adopting spatial strategies that reflect networked growth among office submarkets, managing vacancy rates through a metropolitanwide approach, and fostering equal-status business districts across the Seoul metropolitan region.

키워드