AMG 추정법을 활용한 소득수준별 LCT 제품 무역의 교통 부문 탄소배출 저감 효과: 국가별 이질성과 횡단면 상관을 고려하여

초록

Purpose – Trade in low-carbon technology (LCT) products is considered a key tool for the transition to a low-carbon economy, while normally trade itself induces emissions through logistic activities. In order to investigate heterogeneous effects of LCT products on environmental indices, this study empirically analyzes the impact of the LCT product trade on carbon emissions in the transportation sector. Design/Methodology/Approach – Using 24-year panel data covering 188 countries from 2000 to 2023, we adopted AMG estimators robust to cross-sectional correlation, heteroskedasticity, and unit roots as the main analysis model, providing interaction terms in additional model. Findings – LCT product exports exhibited a negative effect, while imports exhibited a positive effect. The LCT trade-to-GDP ratio and RCA showed a negative direction, but the significance was mixed. The control variables, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and population, exhibited significant positive effects in all models, reassuring previous literature results. Marginal effects of interactions with income level confirmed that the environmental effects of the LCT trade operate heterogeneously depending on income level. Research Implications – The results of this study suggest that differentiated policy approaches are needed for each income group. In high-income developed countries, policies to strengthen LCT export competitiveness are effective for decarbonizing the transportation sector, while in low-income and developing countries, LCT product strategies to improve accessibility are required.

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