ScholarWorks@중앙대학교

초록

This study empirically analyzed the sequential spillovers in greater Seoul (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon) and adjacent regional housing markets including Gangwon and Chungcheong regions. Specifically, a panel VECM and panel Granger causality analysis were employed to examine whether housing price spillovers from Seoul extend to the surrounding metropolitan areas (Gyeonggi and Incheon), whether secondary spillover effects reach adjacent outskirt regions, and whether direct spillovers occur between Seoul and these outskirt regions. The main results are as follows. First, the Seoul housing market exhibited Granger causality with the surrounding metropolitan areas in the short term. Second, however, Seoul and the metropolitan areas appear to form distinct housing markets with their own status in the long run. Third, fluctuations in the Gyeonggi housing market were found to increase instability in the Incheon housing market. Fourth, the impact of the Seoul housing market appeared to be more significant in the Gangwon region compared to the Chungcheong areas. Fifth, housing market dynamics in Greater Seoul followed a sequential pattern, spreading from Seoul to Gyeonggi and then from Gyeonggi to Incheon. Finally, the analysis confirmed a sequential spillover effect from Seoul and the metropolitan area to the Gangwon and Chungcheong regions. These results suggested that continued policy efforts are necessary to stabilize housing prices in Seoul. In the process, policymakers should develop detailed measures with the recognition that housing policy spillover effects can extend beyond the metropolitan areas to the Gangwon and Chungcheong regions.

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