경기북도 설립의 경제적 효과

초록

This study analyzes policy effect when the North Gyeonggi province pursues an independent development strategy. As a result of the analysis, if Gyeonggi province maintains the same manufacturing policy as the current one, the manufacturing gap between the North and South Gyeonggi is 1/8.3, and the gap will be 1/7.9 after 10 years, However, the South Gyeonggi's gross domestic product is 4.5 times larger than the North, and the gap between the North and South remains after one decade. In the case of the Independent North Gyeonggi Scenario 1, that the industrial policy of the North Gyeonggi is implemented to makes the South/North ratio of manufacturing value 7 through promoting small and medium-sized enterprises, the South/North ratio of GDRP(Gross Regional Development produce) will be decreased from 4.5 to 4.1 after 10 years. In the case of the Independent North Gyeonggi Scenario 2, that the industrial policy of the North Gyeonggi is implemented to makes the South/North ratio of manufacturing value 5 through promoting big-sized enterprises, the South/North ratio of GDRP will be decreased from 4.5 to 3.2 after 10 years. And, in the case of the Independent North Gyeonggi Scenario 3, that the industrial policy of the North Gyeonggi is implemented to makes the South/North ratio of manufacturing value 3 through promoting global enterprises, the South/North ratio of GDRP will be decreased from 4.5 to 2.1 after 10 years. The net present value of the North Gyeonggi Province is estimated to be about 405 trillion won.

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