내생적 경제성장모형을 활용한 사회간접자본(SOC) 투자 적정성의 평가

초록

This study aims to evaluate the optimality of SOC investment in Korea. To do this, we employ an endogenous growth model to assess the optimality of SOC investments in the central government, local government, public enterprises, and private-public-partnership investment. The theoretical ratio of SOC investment to GDP is 2~4% with 3~5% of GDP growth rate, 0.255 of output elasticity, and 1~2.5% of depreciation rate of SOC stock. The actual 2004-10 SOC investment to GDP ratios of the central government budget were bounded within a proper scope in the context of central government. However, if local government budgets, public and private investments included, the ratio was significantly increased to 4.28% in 2010, that can be seen to the maximum range. Meanwhile, the investment ratio in the 2011-15 National Fiscal Management Plan on the SOC is shown to be appropriate in terms of this evaluation model.

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