Analyzing the time frame for the transition from leisure-cyclist to commuter-cyclist

초록

A recent survey reported that many commuter-cyclists had enjoyed leisure bicycling on a regular basis prior to becoming a commuter-cyclist. While bicycling for leisure, it is assumed that they considered various factors that led them to consider becoming commuter-cyclists. This study began with the question of how long it would take for a leisure-cyclist to become a commuter-cyclist, and it focused on the time that elapsed between leisure-cyclists transitioning to commuter-cycling. In order to analyze the time frame, it was hypothesized that the probability that a leisure-cyclist would become a commuter-cyclist at a certain time would be conditional on the duration that elapsed from the onset of leisure cycling till that time, which represents the "snowballing" or "inertial" dynamics of duration. A robust methodology, which is known as the "hazard model," was adopted to accommodate such characteristics of a time period. In addition, various external covariates such as individual-specific characteristics, variables associated with the current or previous commuting mode, supply variables regarding bicycle facilities, and individual latent propensities were adopted to account for the duration of changes that would be generally applicable. As a result, many useful results were derived that could be used in fomenting policies to promote cycling to work. It was found that government should invest in establishing segregated lanes for leisure- and commuter-cyclists. It also turned out that a long distance to work hinders a leisure-cyclist from progressing to commuter-cycling. According to the results, young white-collar workers who live in high-rise apartments and enjoy intensive leisure-cycling in groups, are a good target toward whom promotions for commuter-cycling should be focused. However, an unfortunate development was that, when compared with car-commuters, it was found that transit-commuters are more likely to become commuter-cyclists.

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