재정준칙의 재정건전화 효과 분석

초록

This study investigates fiscal rules, which focus on fiscal consolidation by way of permanently constraining aggregate fiscal targets. Well-known candidates of aggregate fiscal targets are fiscal deficits, a growth rate of expenditure, and government debt. A rule-based fiscal policy is useful to strengthen fiscal discipline, though it temporarily limits government fiscal policy tools to face business cycle. To show the effects of the fiscal rules on fiscal consolidation, we regressed a fiscal rules index(FRI) by EU(2010) on a cyclically adjusted budget balance using panel fixed effect model. It may be questionable to introduce a rule-based fiscal policy to Korea now since the fiscal sector is sounder than any other economic sector. If we consider several factors threatening fiscal sector soundness, for example, ageing and low fertility problem, it is relevant to study a rule-based fiscal policy now.

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