변이할당분석을 활용한 동북아 컨테이너항만의 물동량 변동성 연구

초록

Northeast Asia is the most economically dynamic region in the world. Since the 1960s, Korea, China and Japan have been the main pillars of this region, which has achieved industrialization one after another, and has been pushing for new construction and expansion of container ports to handle the rapidly increasing trade volume. Ports in this region are in fierce competition to not only handle their own cargo volume but also to attract transshipment traffic through the regional logistics center. The purpose of this study is to suggest implications for the port's development strategy by analyzing the structural variability of cargo volume for major container ports in three Northeast Asian countries from 2000 to 2020. For this purpose, the variability of cargo volume by country, period, and port size was compared with each other by using shift-share analysis and BCG (Boston Consulting Group) portfolio analysis technique. As a result of the analysis, the port traffic volume represents an increase in the economy and trade volume, and thus the growth and market share of Chinese ports are rapidly increasing, whereas most Japanese ports are in decline. Ports in Korea are showing a stagnant phenomenon in overall cargo volume at the intermediate level between China and Japan. Therefore, it is expected that China's ports will maintain or further promote their dominance in port competition in Northeast Asia in the future.

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