ScholarWorks@중앙대학교

초록

This study introduces the “excess growth rate of debt,” defined as the difference between debt growth and real GDP growth, to capture how rapidly debt expands relative to the economy. While most prior research focused on static debt-to-GDP ratios, this paper addresses the need to understand the dynamic pace of leverage accumulation and its macroeconomic consequences. Using a balanced panel of 24 OECD countries from 1990 to 2020, we apply the one-step System GMM estimator to control for endogeneity and dynamic feedback between debt and growth. The results show that excess corporate and government debt growth is negatively associated with GDP growth, especially before the global financial crisis, whereas the household effect turns negative only afterward. Lag analysis indicates persistent negative effects of government debt at one- and three-year lags and a short-term positive but longer-term negative effect of household debt. Higher-order moments reveal that volatility in excess debt growth reduces output, while asymmetric surges in government debt occasionally support growth under crisis conditions. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring not only the level of debt but also its growth rate and stability to maintain sustainable macroeconomic performance.

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