시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 제주항 물동량 예측

초록

Jeju Port is a regional hub port, and it is inevitably affected by external factors such as economic development, population, and number of tourists. Based on causality, we estimated the future demand of Jeju port by estimating the total freight volume and analyzed the sensitivity of Jeju port according to external factors. The utilized factors are Jeju GRDP, population, construction permission area, number of domestic tourists, chinese GDP and chinese tourist. As a result of estimating the total freight volume of Jeju port by 2025, it is analyzed that the trade volume is continuously increased. As time went on, the freight volume is increased. It is estimated that the freight volume in Jeju port is expected to increase explosively in the future, with an increase of approximately 2 times from 11,198,700 tons in 2016 to 20,739,900 tons in 2025. Scenario analysis shows that when the GDP of China and domestic tourists are the best, the freight volume of Jeju port increases to the maximum., and it is analyzed that the freight volume of Jeju port is greatly reduced when it is a WORST scenario of chinese tourists. As a result of sensitivity analysis, it is found that Freight Volume was influenced by china related factor rather than domestic factor. The influence of external factors was confirmed through forecast of freight volume of Jeju port. It is necessary to establish a port operation plan of Jeju Island according to the scenario.

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