수직적 산업내무역과 무역수지의 환율탄력성—한국 제조업을 중심으로—

초록

This paper aims to examine whether international production fragmentation has provoked weakening the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance of eleven major product categories in Korea’s manufacturing by adopting VIIT index as a proxy for international production fragmentation, contrary to the previous researches exploiting IIT index. It is confirmed that VIIT secures absolutely high portion of IIT in Korea’s manufacturing. It is no surprise, accordingly, that selection of proxy between IIT index and VIIT may not end up with serious difference in empirical results, as long as Korea’s manufacturing is concerned. In fact, our empirical findings turn out to be compatible with that prediction. More importantly, it reveals that proliferation of international production fragmentation has induced diminishing the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance of all product categories in Korea’s manufacturing except nonferrous metals and precision instruments. In addition, other determinants of trade balance such as relative GDP, real exchange rate, and import-weighted distance have proved to mostly go along with theoretical expectation in top four categories of trade volume in Korea’s manufacturing such as chemistry, machinery, electrical and electronic equipments, and transportation equipments. This final finding may be interpreted as suggesting that targeting sizable industry, wherever possible, may be important for similar future research.

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