행정구역 통합과 지방정부의 성과: 통합창원시의 사례를 중심으로

초록

Using city-level panel data, this study applies the Synthetic Control Method to evaluate the impact of the 2010 municipal consolidation of Masan, Changwon, and Jinhae on local competitiveness, fiscal capacity, and resident welfare. By constructing a counterfactual city absent consolidation, we find no evidence of the anticipated gains in economic growth or welfare. Instead, per-capita public expenditure and intergovernmental transfers are lower than in the synthetic control, while the fiscal independence index is higher. These results indicate that the primary effects of the consolidation arise from changes in fiscal structure and expenditure allocation rather than from growth-enhancing mechanisms.

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