통제집단합성법(Synthetic Control Method)을 활용한 출산장려금 정책의 사중손실 분석

초록

The purpose of this study is to derive implication for achieving efficiency of Korea’s pro-natalist policies by estimating the deadweight loss of subsidy for childbirths. To achieve the purpose, this study analyzes a government subsidy program that has been in place at a specific region since 2019. This study uses one of the compelling quasi-experimental research designs called a synthetic control method to secure internal validity of the effect estimates. The results show that the deadweight loss of the subsidy program is approximately 90%, implying that most of the achieved policy outcomes could have been attained absent the policy. Because many of the pro-natalist policies in Korea are cash transfers, I argue that future studies should engage more on estimating the deadweight loss of such transfers so that policymakers can identify policy alternatives that are more efficient in promoting fertility level.

키워드