국내 중신용자 대출시장의 현황과 정책적 시사점

초록

Recently, the Korean government has been pursuing a policy to revitalize medium-interested loans, estimating that current personal consumer loans are smaller than loan demands of financial consumers with moderate credit ratings. This is because the breakdown of interest rate structure occurs. In other words, high-credit scored consumers have low borrowing interest rates of less than 4% and mid/low-credit scored consumers have a high borrowing interest rate of more than 20%. Despite these policy efforts by the government, the breakdown of the interest rate structure has remained almost the same until recently. The purpose of this study is to contribute academically and policy-wise to the field of research of personal consumer loans by conducting various empirical analyzes based on the characteristics of medium-rated creditors and non-public data sample-driven from the whole personal consumer loans. In particular, we perform clustering analysis through sampling based on the entire data of personal consumer loans, and then, first of all, identify characteristics of middle-credit scored borrowers and other borrowers. This study grasps the current status of the medium-credited consumer loan market and presents relevant policy implications by conducting cluster analysis and logit analysis based on actual personal consumer loan sample data. First, the cluster analysis shows that four clusters are classified according to factors such as income, size of the total loan amount, and age. Next, as a result of examining the relationship between the interest rate and default rate by credit ratings, it was found that medium-credited consumers are getting loans with higher interest rates than actual their estimated default rates. The logit regression analysis showed that the loan interest rate, the credit rating (or credit score), and the default rate were positive (or negative). Specifically, it was confirmed that regardless of the credit ratings of borrowers, total debt to income ratio (DTI), card loan dummy, and loan balance variables are major factors affecting the default rates. In addition, considering the existence of non-linear relationships, the results of the analysis including the squared term of the credit indicators (credit scores and credit ratings) and the dummy variable for the medium-rated creditors were found to be similar as mentioned previously. In particular, it can be interpreted that the medium-rated creditors lower the default rate significantly because of the negative relationship between the medium-rated creditor dummy and the default rate. Finally, as a result of estimating the expected profits of financial institutions per lending unit by credit ratings, it is difficult to exclude the possibility that financial institutions are getting relatively excessive profits from the medium-rated creditors compared to other groups of borrowers. These results suggest that it is necessary to increase the medium-rated consumer loan size to an appropriate level rather than the present through accurately assessing the default rate for medium-rated consumers by developing a more accurate credit rating model for them.

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