시계열 분석과 인과모델 비교분석에 의한 국내 골프장 내장객 수요예측에 관한 연구

초록

Demand forecast is a technique of analyzing and estimating data in a variety of fields. Especially, tourism sector is an important economic activity in the rapidly chaning economic environment. Thus, it is important to accurately describe the changing social environment and exactly understand the degree of the change. In stressful conditions such as the rapid decline of membership since 2008, the arrival time of enrollment fee and deposit returns, excess competition due to increase of golf courses, decline of golf population and decrease of operating profit due to reduced visitors per hole, the need for demand forecast through the rational and scientific way for golf courses is becoming increasingly important. Demand forecast for visitors of domestic golf courses is a very important study in that it can help to set marketing policies and service policies of companies that operate golf courses. The purpose of this study was to forecast visitors of domestic golf courses in January-December 2013 from monthly data of January 2008 to December 2012, using comparative analysis of the time series model and the cause & effect model. As the result of forecast, visitors decreased from December to February and sharply increased from March to November. However, visitors decreased from June to August because of summer holiday and the rainy season.

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