Spatial spillover effects of high-speed rail on regional employment: A Spatial Durbin Model approach

초록

While high-speed rail (HSR) is widely recognized for enhancing regional connectivity and stimulating economic activity, its long-term effects on labor market dynamics remain underexplored, particularly with regard to structural transformation and interregional spillovers. This study addresses this gap by employing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) using municipal-level panel data from 2000 to 2020 across 250 regions in South Korea. Our research results indicate that, in the long term, the presence of KTX stations does not significantly stimulate employment growth in the host regions. Instead, the employment effects of KTX are primarily indirect, operating through positive spillovers in adjacent areas. This contrast suggests that HSR acts less as a net generator of new employment and more as a tool for the spatial redistribution of labor, a logic driven by the interplay between enhanced labor mobility and the spatial constraints inherent in core urban areas. This pattern highlights the role of HSR as a catalyst for regional integration, enhancing interregional labor mobility and economic interaction. Sectoral analyses further reveal three distinct mechanisms: the construction sector experiences direct local job growth near KTX stations (centripetal siphoning), while health and social welfare (centrifugal relocation) and transportation and warehousing (peripheral derivation) benefit through spatial spillovers. In contrast, manufacturing, finance, and retail sectors show limited sensitivity to passenger-oriented infrastructure. These results suggest that maximizing the employment benefits of HSR requires coordinated regional planning, targeted industrial strategies, and investment in secondary cities to mitigate potential “hub siphoning” effects.

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