전이함수모형을 이용한 약품비 지출의 예측

초록

This study considers time series models to forecast drug expenditures in national health insurance. We adopt autoregressive error model (ARE) and transfer function model (TFM) with segmented level and trends (before and after 2012) in order to reflect drug price reduction in 2012. The ARE has only a segmented deterministic term to increase the forecasting performance, while the TFM explains a causality mechanism of drug expenditure with closely related exogenous variables. The mechanism is developed by cross-correlations of drug expenditures and exogenous variables. In both models, the level change appears significant and the number of drug users and ratio of elderly patients variables are significant in the TFM. The ARE tends to produce relatively low forecasts that have been influenced by a drug price reduction; however, the TFM does relatively high forecasts that have appropriately reflected the effects of exogenous variables. The ARIMA model without the exogenous variables produce the highest forecasts.

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