Alternative futures for the New Jersey shore: Climate change adaptation & natural hazard mitigation strategies

초록

Hurricane Sandy caused $60 billion in damage and killed over 100 people in communities along the Atlantic Coast of the United States in Oct 2012. This paper seeks to describe alternative futures for areas which were heavily damaged in the storm, and illustrates alternatives to the predominant Restore the Shore movement to rebuild with few new environmental considerations. It also illustrates how policy changes and community-specific design interventions can build community and regional resilience to future storms and environmental changes. Climate Changes and Future Storm Trends The damage caused by Sandy brought renewed attention to climate change and the likelihood of storms affecting the New Jersey coastline in the future. Climate change is having a measureable impact on hurricane formation, intensity, and their trajectory along the Atlantic Coast. This paper deals with prediction and preparation for future storms by analyzing the climate trends; hurricane formation and intensity, storm paths, and sea level rise. Vulnerability Index Risk assessment is carried out to identify potential hazards and analyze what could happen if a hazard occurs. Risk assessment is a three step process: (1) hazard identification, (2) vulnerability assessment, and (3) impact analysis. Using spatial data, specific vulnerability factors were defined and calculated in ArcGIS. These factors were combined to produce interim indices, representing the full continuum from the worst to the best possible situation in environmental and socioeconomic aspects. Mitigation Strategies From the research, three major mitigation strategies are suggested: (1) Retreat, (2) Adapt, and (3) Protect. Comprehensive climate change adaptation/natural hazard mitigation strategies are provided for the Jersey Shore according to three strategies. Lastly, this paper proposes landscape design guidelines to the representative areas to effectively target infrastructure funding, reduce flood losses over time, and fulfill development goals set out in the New Jersey State Plan.