재무분석가의 베스트 선정 및 산업전문성과 예측특성

초록

This study investigates whether analysts are in deed “best-rated” according to their forecast accuracy and industry expertise. Based on the semiannual “best analysts” tables from 2000 to 2006 provided by the Maeil Business Newspaper and Korea Economic Daily, we find that the analysts with more accurate earnings forecasts are not selected as best analysts. Specifically, the earnings forecasts accuracy of best analysts prior to their selection is significantly lower than that of non-best analysts. This result remains consistent even after controlling for firm characteristics, forecast periods, and the number of industries and firms under coverage. In addition, best analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate during their selection period than non-best analysts’ concurrent earnings forecasts. This finding is robust to controlling for analysts’ industry expertise and the pre-selection and selection period dummies. The inferences drawn herein may caution investors not to confuse the top ratings of analysts with their earnings forecast capabilities. In addition, the result that the analysts with higher industry expertise are more accurate in earnings forecast prescribes considering the analysts’ industry expertise when making investment decision. Finally, this study calls for an amendment in the selection criteria of best analysts by better reflecting earnings forecasts accuracy which incentivizes analysts to improve such skills and accommodates investors to implement more reliable recommendations in their investment decisions.

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