중국 주택가격과 부동산개발대출의 상관관계에 관한 연구: 1선 도시 중심으로

초록

Bank credit has been an important funding source for housing development in China. This study uses monthly time series of housing prices and real estate development loans between May 2007 and July 2015 to investigate the interaction between housing prices and housing construction loans in tier 1 cities of China. The Johansen cointegration test shows that there is a long-run cointegration relationship between housing prices and real estate development loans. Vector error correction analysis shows that the short-run interaction between housing prices and real estate development loans is relatively weak. Impulse response analysis shows that the influence of housing prices on real estate development loans as well as the influence of real estate development loans on housing prices is not immediate, rather it gradually builds up over time. The weak short-term relationship between housing prices and construction credit provided by banks is not surprising as (1) it takes time for changes in construction credit to bring about changes in housing completion; (2) builders cannot immediately adjust housing supply in response to housing prices; and (3) the Chinese government has actively intervened in the housing market throughout the period under study.

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