계절 ARIMA모형 분석을 통한 전국골프장 내장객 수요예측

초록

The purpose of this study was to search for a creative marketing strategy with analyzing the golfer　s demand forecast. For the period of the two and a half years, the ARIMA model was used to analyze the strategy which has been used in the golf industry. This method was used to analyze the customers expected demand of the national golf clubs, which were a member of the Korean Golf Association. After analysis of the customers expected demand from July 2012 to December 2014 of the entire national golf clubs, one could observe that there is a continuous increase expected. The ARIMA model was established as follows: National (3,1,3)(3,1,3)12, According to this model, there will be a rapid decrease of demand in January and February which is linked to the cold weather but in March when the temperature increase through May, June, September there will be a rapid increase until October. By the analysis performed in this study, the factors affecting the demand of golf clubs is shown in detail. Moreover, the golf industry on region and its influence is shown. This various creative marketing strategies may be recommended and their effect needs to be studied further.

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