우리나라 소방용품 시장 예측모형에 대한 연구

초록

The market size of the firefighting supplies industry is can be considered a derivative demand of the constructionindustry, and its patterns differ seasonally. In this study, the seasonal ARIMA model and the transfer function model wereestablished, and their predictive performances were verified. It was statistically confirmed that the firefighting suppliesmarket has a lagging character in the construction industry. Although the seasonal ARIMA model, a representativetime-series model, is a suitable predictive model, the transfer function model linked to the construction market is moreuseful in the short-term forecast period. This study is the first statistical prediction study of the firefighting supplies marketin Korea. Based on the structural characteristics of the firefighting supplies industry, the relationship between the buildingpermit and firefighting supplies production should be established using the transfer function model, the transfer functionmodel is more useful in the decision-making process of firefighting supplies policies and the manufacturer’s marketing.

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