민주화 이후 한국의 대통령 선거: 역사와 경쟁의 원리

초록

This study aims to outline the results and factors of the eight presidential elections held by the Republic of Korea over the past 35 years since democratization in 1987. Since the election analysis so far has focused on individual factors or specific elections, it is insufficient to show the main factors that run through the entire elections, and their correlations. This study comprehensively examines the characteristics of the presidential elections after democratization focusing on regionalistic voting behavior, election competition structure, regional election coalition, political situation, and candidate factor which have been pointed out as major factors in the presidential election. Through this, it is possible to discover several principles of competition that commonly worked in the presidential elections. First, it is an advantageous structure for candidates from Gyeongsang-do to win in a situation where regionalism is dominant. Second, it is difficult to win if candidates divide, whether conservative or liberal. Third, in the election coalition, the outcome is determined by who makes political coalition with Chungcheong-do . Fourth, the greater the disappointment with the incumbent government, the greater the pressure for regime change, and the disadvantage of the ruling party candidate. Finally, voters generally prefer presidential candidates who are far from Yeouido politics . The outcome of the election was determined by the interaction of these factors.

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