대학폐교가 지역상권에 미치는 영향: 이중차분-콕스비례위험모형을 활용하여

초록

This study examines the effects of university closures on nearby commercial areas in Korea. Using business opening and closure records from the Local Administration Licensing System, we analyze the survival rates and closure risks of establishments located near universities that had permanently closed as of 2024. A Difference-in-Differences (DID) design combined with a Cox proportional hazards model is employed to estimate the causal impacts, with financially distressed but non-closed universities serving as the comparison group. Commercial zones are classified into three spatial levels: primary zones (areas adjacent to campuses), secondary zones (nearby commercial clusters), and broader 3km-radius zones. Our results show that closure risks in closed-university areas were relatively lower than those in the comparison areas, potentially reflecting preemptive business exits prior to the actual shutdown. The effects were concentrated in primary zones and in sectors such as food and beverage services, while no significant changes were observed in secondary or wider zones. These findings indicate that university closures do not generate immediate or widespread economic shocks; rather, they appear to intensify pre-existing structural vulnerabilities. This study suggests the need for proactive planning, including early diagnosis of commercial district conditions and strategic intervention before economic damage accumulates.

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