한국-인도 포괄적 경제동반자협정(CEPA)이 글로벌 비즈니스 기업에 미치는 무역효과 분석

초록

The antecedent to the relationship betwe en market volatility and trade effects has been investigated in this study as market volatility positively and negatively affects trade effects. The purpose of this study is to empirically test that the effect of mark et volatility on trade effects. GARCH(1, 1) -M model and ARCH(1, 1) model were us ed to test the hypothesis using Eviews 8.0 statistics program. Most previous researc h focused on the relationship between tra de volumes and economic effects. There are few empirical studies that focus on for eign exchange volatility data because it is difficult to collect in many cases of mark et volatility and trade effects. However, this research measures market volatility such as foreign exchange volatility, stock volatil ity, TED spread, CDS spread, oil price, and S&P 500 differently than previous res earch, which is mostly focused on the mar ket volatility and trade effects measureme nts. This study provides some policy and practical implications to comprehensive e conomic partnership agreement (CEPA) in terms of market volatility and trade effe cts of global business company. First, after the approval of Korea-India CEPA in Sept ember 2009, Korea and India is expected to increase their export and import growth rate and also to persistent a market volatili ty shocks. Second, while stock volatility have a positively significant influence on the export and import growth rate, foreign exchange volatility have a negatively signi ficant influence on the export and import growth rate. Third, TED spread and CDS spread have a positively significant influe nce on the export and import growth rate. Lastly, while S&P 500 have a positively significant influence on the export and im port growth rate, oil price have a negatively significant influence on the export and im port growth rate. Based on the findings of this study, related implications and futu re avenues are also discussed.

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