구조적 VAR 모형 및 세율자료를 이용한 재정정책의 효과 분석

초록

This paper examines the output effects of fiscal policy based on two approaches. The first approach employs SVARs. However, it differs from previous studies in data sources, classification of government expenditures,and treatment of data to allow for permanent effects of fiscal policy. The second one is the first attempt in Korea to estimate the effects of a tax cut using historical data on tax rates since 1970. Results show that the effects of an increase in government expenditures are much bigger than those found in previous studies. The effects of a tax cut estimated with tax rates are more pronounced than in SVARs.

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