지역 인구유출이 아파트 매매지수에 미치는 영향

초록

The identification of the impact of population outflow on local housing markets is challenging because migration and regional economic conditions are endogenously correlated to each other. We address this issue by employing an instrumental variable approach to estimate the causal effect of population outflow on apartment price indices. The instrumental variable used here is the number of new apartment units supplied in adjacent areas during the previous three months. Using a two-stage least squares analysis of monthly panel data for si, gun, and units from January 2020 to May 2025, the results show that a net outflow of one person is associated with a 0.0128-point decrease in the apartment sales index, a 0.0183-point decrease in the jeonse index, and a 0.0088-point decline in the comprehensive housing index. This implies that when a district experiences an average monthly net outflow of 250 residents, the apartment sales index decreases by approximately 0.03%, the jeonse index by 0.04%, and the comprehensive housing sales index by 0.02%. These effects are found only in the case of net population outflows and are not significant for net inflows. Moreover, the negative effects of population outflow on housing markets tend to persist and intensify over time. The impact is particularly pronounced in regions with a higher proportion of the working-age population aged 30-64.

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