Market performance prediction based conceptual design of mid-sized passenger aircrafts

초록

In this paper, we introduce a design method applicable to the early development stage of a new product of long life-cycle time. Customer requirements employed at the early stage of a design process is critically important; however, those are easily outdated due to relatively long product development time and/or rapidly changing market situation. Addressing this critical issue, we provide a framework, strategic product design, in which one may design a product to be sustainable from unstable global economic situation, maximizing his or her profit. In the strategic product design, historical trends of customers' preference are analyzed and modeled as a market performance metric, incorporating economic factors. The established model is then used for predicting the future market performance of a new product (or concept) to be developed. For the validation of our approach, we employ a case of conceptual design of mid-sized passenger aircrafts, which requires more than 5 years of product development lead-time, assuming a number of scenarios with different future economic situations.

키워드