코로나 팬데믹에 따른 서울 오피스시장 공실의 시공간 전이효과

초록

This study examines the dynamic interrelationships of office markets between Seoul and major regional areas before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using quarterly office vacancy rate data for Seoul and five national regions from the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2025, we employ a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows: First, the long run equilibrium relationship between the Seoul office market and regional office markets persists both before and after the pandemic. Second, the spillover structure of vacancy rate fluctuations changed markedly after the onset of the pandemic. Third, as pandemic-induced shocks affected regions asymmetrically, the dynamic volatility linkage between the Seoul office market and regional markets is reconfigured. Fourth, spillover effects from Seoul varied with physical distance, with geographically proximate regions exhibiting shorter spillover lags. Fifth, shocks from Seoul propagate to more distant regional office markets with a clear time delay. Overall, the findings suggest that post-pandemic changes in social conditions and work environments have not strengthened independent demand bases in regional office markets; rather, they have reinforced a structure in which regional dynamics increasingly depend on fluctuations in Seoul’s office market. Based on these results, the study provides three policy implications: regional office markets should develop demand bases tailored to local industrial structures, vacancy risks in Seoul should be continuously monitored, and macro-level policy responses should be coordinated across regions.

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