복지재정과 교육재정 적정성 전망과지방재정 운용에의 시사점

초록

The purpose of this study is to assess the current and future optimal level of the local social protection and education expenditure whose compositional changes are due to aging and demographic change. We also try to derive the policy implication for local public expenditure operations based on the following findings. Based on the empirical analysis for determinant of the public expenditure and future forecast, the education expenditure share out of total expenditure in 2025 is expected to 16.1 percent which is higher than 4.3 percent point of OECD average. However, that of social protection expenditure (COFOG 10) will be lower by 15.3 percent point (Korea 23.1 percent, OECD 38.4 percent). This finding confirms that the more public resources are invested in the educational expenditure and less in the social protection in Korea. The very speedy aging and demographic change in Korea are driving source for fiscal reform and restructuring local pubic expenditure. We suggest a partial and progressive operation as an efficient policy alternative between local general expenditure and education expenditure.

키워드