인과순환지도에 근거한 미래예측: 철학적 근거와 논의

초록

After The Limits to Growth, System Dynamics studies, alike C-Roads, have been following a strong tradition of the prediction which was considered as a function of System Dynamics. And until now, this has been focused mainly on Stock-Flow Diagram. However, this study suggests a new way of the future prediction through the future analysis based on Causal Loop Diagram, as following the System Dynamics philosophy. This future analysis is different with Future Study. In this paper we discuss the concept of causality, time, future prediction, which are the philosophycal ground for future analysis with Causal Loop Diagram. Moreover, this study suggests an expanded way to describe the predicted future with a combined methodology of Casual Loop Diagram and the scenario method. Using this way, without computational simulation, the future analysis could address the predicted future within the system dynamics philosophy.

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