오쿤의 법칙(Okun’s law)에 대한 재해석

초록

This paper evaluate the robustness of the Okun relationship based on Korean data for 1979~2008. For estimating a natural unemployment rate, this study uses time series econometric methodologies. This paper finds some interesting results; first of all, a bench mark estimates of Okun's range from 2 to 4 with different methodologies. This is a little bit higher scale than that of Lee(2000)'s results, which estimated the Okun's coefficient on the advanced countries' 1955~1996. Secondly, we test an asymmetric behavior of unemployment rate on business cycle. But the results are mixed. Finally we cannot find the evidence of structural break for the periods of 1979~80 and 1997~98 crises.

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