환변동보험 수요 결정요인의 동태적 시계열분석 - 구조적 자기벡터회귀모형을 이용한 접근 -

초록

This paper provides empirical evidence for the determinants of demand for foreign exchange risk insurance. In doing so, this paper adapts the structural VAR (SVAR) approach and explores dynamic response of foreign exchange risk insurance to the structural innovations of Won-Dollar exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, export, and foreign exchange risk insurance money. Using the SVAR approach, we impose several restrictions to the reduced-form VAR and implement economic structures to dynamic response of demand for foreign exchange risk insurance to the relevant shocks. The results show that the insurance money has a strong impact on the insurance demand while the Won-Dollar exchange rate and its volatility have moderate effects. In addition, the size of export has no significant effect on the insurance demand. Our empirical evidences imply that foreign exchange market and the insurance money play more crucial role than the size of export in explaining demand for foreign exchange insurance. The estimation results from SVAR, however, are subject to the ex ante assumptions on the insurance demand. Given the limitations of SVAR, more theoretical works are required to provide more foundations for related empirical studies.

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