금융위기 이후 한국 ICT 제조업 고용의 변동요인

초록

This study empirically analyzes determinants of Korean ICT manufacturing employment that had kept increasing even after the global financial crisis in 2008 but has declined since 2014. For the empirical study, monthly establishment employment data from the ministry of employment and labor along with other official industry-level data are used, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied. The empirical model includes monthly data of the number of employees, net entry rate to ICT manufacturing jobs, industry-level real wage, exports, order index of machinery, foreign investment, and domestic demand index. Specifically the order index of machinery reflects the investment demand of Korean ICT manufacturing industry, while domestic supply of domestic goods, domestic supply of imported goods, and share of the imported goods in the domestic supply are considered for the domestic demand index. Main results from the analysis of net entry rate are: i) net entry rate to ICT manufacturing jobs is positively affected by exports in the short-run, ii) the net entry rate is positively affected by the machinery order in the long-run, iii) the net entry rate is negatively affected by the imported goods share in the short and long-run. Furthermore, main results from the analysis of the number of employees are: i) Korean ICT manufacturing employment is positively related with exports, ii) but negatively related with the imported ICT goods share in the domestic market. Interestingly the order of machinery and the foreign investment do not have significant impacts on Korean ICT manufacturing employment. The empirical results imply that Korean ICT manufacturing employment has decreased due to stagnant exports and substitution to imported ICT goods in Korean domestic market, which also can lead to negative effects on Korean ICT manufacturing firms in general.

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