주택가격 버블과 기준금리 변동의 시사점: 한국과 미국의 비교

초록

In order to determine an exit strategy for quantitative easing, it is necessary to consider the housing market situation, which has a significant impact on the economy. By comparing the current (real) housing price with the fundamental value, it is possible to estimate whether a bubble exists and whether the house price will rise further. This study intends to compare and analyze the US and Korean housing price bubbles empirically and discuss the effects of exit strategies, which have recently attracted attention, on the housing market. The real value of the Korean housing market has risen since 2000, reached a peak in the first quarter of 2007, and has continued to decline. The results of the change in the base interest rate directly driving the housing price bubble were not drawn. However, the adjustment of the domestic base rate can be viewed as a major factor in housing price fluctuations when supply and demand in the housing market is not resolved, and the domestic economy is affected by the interest rate adjustment of the US Federal Reserve Bank and changes in the housing market. Consequently, it needs to be carefully considered when making policy decisions.

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