울산항의 유류화물 물동량 예측에 관한 연구

초록

Forecasting of cargo volume is a core of port planning. Port of Ulsan has shown relatively stable demand in port operations due to its dependence on liquid freight. However recent development of Tuman region and emergence of NSR(Northern Sea Route) provide Ulsan port with more chances to secure and attract more cargo. This requires freight forecasting reflecting current and future changes in regions surrounding Ulsan port so that port development plan for Ulsan port can be adjusted as appropriate. This study conducted time series analysis of oil freight volume under three scenarios with three different forecasting models. The results suggest that the expected oil volume for the next 10 years can be covered with facilities which are planned to be constructed until 2025 without NSR effect. With the effect of NSR, however, the current port plan need revision expanding port facilities for liquid cargo in Port of Ulsan.

키워드