분야별 재정지출의 구조와 결정요인 분석

초록

This study investigates the structure and determinants of government functional expenditures and discusses its future direction. To this end, we did an empirical analysis of the determinants of government functional expenditure using most recent OECD SNA data set. The International Comparison of Government Expenditure(ICGE) index, based on the regression results of the determinants of government functional expenditures, showed that the current expenditure structure is appropriate and considers possible changes. The main result is that the welfare expenditure is anticipated to increase rapidly as the low fertility and aging problems intensify. Hence, the welfare expenditure should be constrained to a reasonable level, with current adjustments in the economic expenditure to avoid huge expansion of overall government spending. We also conclude that there is much uncertainty in future welfare expenditures that hinge on political or environmental factors.

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