IFRS 도입이 애널리스트 투자의견 낙관주의에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

초록

This paper investigates the impacts of the adoption of IFRS on the quality of accounting information by examining the change in the optimistic bias in the financial analysts’ stock recommendations after the adoption of IFRS. Many studies about the effects of IFRS on the quality of analyst reports focus on analysts`` earnings forecasts but not on their stock recommendations. However, both analysts`` earnings forecasts and stock recommendations are key elements of analyst reports. In addition, analysts’ recommendations affect more directly and closely on investment decision of investors than their earnings forecasts. Therefore, to fill the lack, this paper particularly examines the change in the optimistic bias in analysts`` stock recommendations after the adoption of IFRS. More precisely, if investors easily detect the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendations due to the improved information environment following the adoption of IFRS, the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendation would decrease after the adoption of IFRS. On the other hand, if the information environment has deteriorated following the adoption of IFRS, analysts would try more to release optimistic recommendations because investors will not detect the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendations. To conclude these conflicting expectations, empirical research seems to be necessary. The empirical evidence provided by this project shows that the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendation increases after the adoption of IFRS. Specifically, after the adoption of IFRS, ‘Buy’ recommendations significantly increase while ‘Hold’, ‘Underperform’, and ’Sell’ recommendations decrease, which explains the increase in the optimistic bias in analysts’ recommendations. Additionally, we investigate whether the IFRS adoption has an influence on the relation between the optimism in the analysts’ recommendations and the optimism in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. The results show that the adoption of IFRS has no significant effect on the relation between the optimism in the analysts’ recommendations and the optimism in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. In other words, IFRS adoption does not affect the analysts’ strategic and opportunistic motivations. Further, this paper also examines whether the Chaebol-affiliated analysts’ recommendations become optimistic following the adoption of IFRS and finds that the optimistic bias in Chaebol-affiliated analysts’ recommendations increase after the adoption of IFRS. Lastly, in order to solve the endogenous problem regarding the likelihood of significant changes in the characteristics of sample firms around the period of the mandatory IFRS adoption, we re-examine the main analysis with the subsample of firms who voluntarily adopt the IFRS and obtain the consistent results with the main analysis. In summary, these results imply that the IFRS adoption deteriorates information environment and consequently, the optimism in analysts’ recommendation increases.

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