겸용 기술과 수출 통제의 전략적 활용: 우크라이나의 드론 수입 전략의 동태적 진화

초록

This study examines why Ukraine was able to sustain and even expand its imports of Chinese-made drones and drone components despite the introduction and successive tightening of China’s export controls. The analysis reveals that Ukraine dynamically evolved its procurement strategies in response to each phase of China’s export control regime. In the initial phase, Ukraine exploited third-country intermediaries with relatively lax end-use regulations as indirect import channels. As controls tightened, Ukraine diversified these circumvention routes while simultaneously shifting toward greater imports of dual-use components — parts indistinguishable from those used in commercial electronics — which proved more difficult to restrict than finished drone systems. As export controls became more sophisticated, Ukraine began pursuing strategic autonomy by developing an indigenous drone supply chain to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports. This dynamic evolution of adaptive strategies reflects Ukraine’s deliberate exploitation of two structural features: the institutional design of China’s export control regime and the inherently dual-use nature of drone technology. The findings contribute to theoretical debates on target-state adaptation under export controls and offer policy implications regarding the effectiveness of export restrictions on dual-use technologies.

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