다변량 지수평활모형을 이용한 환율 분석

초록

We introduce multivariate exponential smoothing models based on a vector innovations structural time series framework. The models enable us to exploit potential inter-series dependencies to improve the fit and forecasts of multivariate (vector) time series. Models are applied to forecast the exchange rates of the UK pound (UKP) and US dollar (USD) against the Korean won (KRW) observed on monthly basis; subseqently, we compare their performance with alternative models. We observe that the multivariate exponential smoothing models are superior to alternatives.

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