재정개혁과 경제성장: 통제집단합성법(SCM)을 이용한 접근

초록

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of structural fiscal reform policies on economic growth. Structural fiscal reforms proposed in this study refer to growth-friendly policy changes on tax-fiscal policies related to input of production factors and technological progress in traditional economic growth theory. In this study, we will specify the timing of fiscal reform through changes and scale of tax system, value added tax rate, top income tax rate and top corporate tax rate, government investment expenditure, health expenditure, education expenditure. The timing of fiscal reform in Korea is specified as the period from 1996 to 2000 among 1980 to 2010 through stricter standards than those defined by the IMF (2015). The methodology adopted for the empirical analysis of this study is the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). SCM is a methodology similar to the difference-in-difference(DID) method of microeconometrics. It is applied to macroeconomic variables such as country, region, etc. to estimate the causal relationship between specific events and the dependent variable. We include 8 countries as the synthetic control group. The six countries (Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Indonesia) are chosen for the geographic vicinity and the common experience in economic development with Korea and two countires (Austrailia and Ireland) are for their active fiscal refomr policy. From the SCM analysis, it is estimated that the fiscal reform has a positive effect on the economic growth of Korea. Also, through the two placebo effects, it can be seen that the fiscal reform from 1996 to 2000 had a significant effect.

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