지방자치단체 사회복지지출 수준의 결정요인 분석 : 1995-2005

초록

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of social welfare expenditure in 15 local governments in Korea. Each year of 1995 through 2005 data in Seoul, 6 other metropolitan areas, and 9 provinces were pooled as unit of analysis. The pooled cross-sectional time-series regression (TSCSREG) using SAS program was adapted for the analysis. Among 7 selected independent variables, each the rate of economic expenditure to the local government expenditure, the rate of ageing population, the rate of financial self-reliance, and the increase rate of social welfare expenditure to the previous year has been played a significant role to the rate of social welfare expenditure in the total expenditure. Even though the rate of economic expenditure has influenced a negative effect on the rate of social welfare expenditure, each the rate of ageing population, the rate of financial self-reliance and the increase rate social welfare expenditure to the previous year has affected a positive effect on the dependent variable, the rate of social welfare expenditure. Therefore, the rate of social welfare expenditure in local government has been explained by both theories of the economic constraint and incrementalism perspective, rather than the political choice explanation.

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