수도권 연담도시 간 인구이동과 주택시장의 변동성 분석

초록

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The Purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between housing market volatility and population migration. In particular, this study focuses on whether housing price fluctuations in metropolitan conurbation cities cause population migration, and whether housing market volatility and population migration have different features between the conurbation.(2) RESEARCH METHOD This study analyzed the research purpose using the granger casuality analysis and VAR(Vector Auto Regressive) analysis. For the analysis, this study focuses on adjacent conurbation cities in seoul metropolitan area.(3) RESEARCH RESULTS This study found that there is a significant relationship between housing market volatility and population migration in metropolitan conurbation. In addition, it is confirmed that the migration to the adjacent cities is caused by the rent price change. Specifically, it is found that the rent price is more relevant to the migration than the house sale price.2. RESULTS This study suggests that involuntary movements of renter household may be involved in the migration, indicating that interest in residential stability of the renter household is necessary. It also confirms that it is important to monitor the housing market of the adjacent cities as well as the local city for the efficient housing policy.

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