한국 재정정책의 유효성에 관한 논의 : SVAR 추정법을 중심으로

초록

This paper attempts quantitative assessments on the efficacy of fiscal policies in Korea with a particular focus on Structural Vector Autoregressive models. First, based on the literature survey, we find that the fiscal multipliers in Korea are either not significant or relatively smaller than any other developed countries. Next, we estimate fiscal multipliers of Korea using diverse identification schemes commonly adopted in the SVAR literature. Collective comparison of those estimates demonstrates that the significance and magnitude of fiscal multipliers vary depending on the identification schemes, scope of fiscal data, treatment of time series data and VAR specifications. For example, the significance of fiscal multiplier is most pronounced in level VAR including the linear time trend. However, the magnitudes of fiscal multipliers are still relatively small even in the case. Such a result is not much distant from those of other specifications as well as tthe existing literature confirming that the fiscal multipliers in Korea are either small or not significant.

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